40% of Bitcoin Holders Underwater as Bear Market Fears Mount
Currently, Bitcoin is valued at $73,469, reflecting a decline of 31% from its peak exceeding $120,000 in October 2025. Analyst Darkfost highlights that 40% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, mirroring conditions from the 2022 bear market. According to Glassnode, long-term investors are incurring daily losses totaling $200 million. Additionally, whale accounts have transitioned from accumulating to distributing assets, while dolphin accounts exhibit a lack of momentum. Analysts from Rand Group emphasize the importance of May's closing; Bitcoin has never recorded three consecutive monthly gains during a bear market. The ongoing downturn, occurring seven months post-peak, has experienced a 40–50% drawdown, with institutional predictions suggesting a bottom between $56,000 and $68,000 and a recovery expected in 2026 or 2027.
Key facts
- Bitcoin trades near $73,469, down 31% over the past year.
- 40% of Bitcoin supply is held at a loss, per Darkfost.
- Long-term investors realize $200 million daily losses, per Glassnode.
- Whale accumulation turned negative, mirroring early 2022, per CryptoQuant.
- Dolphin accounts show stalled momentum since September 2025.
- May's monthly close is critical; three consecutive green closes never occurred in a bear market.
- Current drawdown is 40–50% from October 2025 peak above $120,000.
- Potential bottom in $55,000–$68,000 range, per Tim Sun and institutional forecasts.
Entities
Artists
- Darkfost
- Tim Sun
Institutions
- Glassnode
- CryptoQuant
- Rand Group
- HashKey Group
- XTB
- Compass Point
- Pantera
- Cointelegraph
- Kucoin
- CoinMarketCap