Smallpox Scabs May Have Introduced Disease to Australia, New Research Suggests

New research suggests smallpox scabs carried by British doctors may have introduced the deadly disease to Australia in 1788. Two preprints, accepted for peer-reviewed publication, argue that smallpox arrived with the First Fleet in Sydney Harbor under Captain Arthur Phillip. Computer models ruled out the alternative hypothesis that Indonesian fishermen brought the disease from the north. The virus may have survived in scabs used for inoculation, which surgeons could have brought from Rio de Janeiro or Cape Town. A second paper recalculates pre-colonial Aboriginal population at 2–3 million, far higher than earlier estimates of 200,000–800,000. Researchers estimate a median of 2.4 million additional deaths from disease, social impacts, and frontier violence in the early to mid-19th century. No evidence of intentional spread was found, and Governor Phillip sought good relations with Indigenous groups. The findings underscore the catastrophic impact of colonization on Aboriginal communities.