AI Enhances Cherry Blossom Bloom Predictions in Japan

In Japan, the annual cherry blossom viewing tradition, known as hanami, is a significant cultural event that draws millions of visitors each spring, boosting tourism. Predicting the peak bloom timing has long been challenging, exacerbated by climate change. This year, Japanese experts achieved highly accurate forecasts using artificial intelligence systems. Meteorologist Hiroki Ito from an Osaka-based institute reported that AI enabled predictions for Tokyo's peak bloom on March 28, with errors of only one or two days across ten calculations from December to March. These AI tools analyze decades of temperature records and thousands of user-uploaded photos from apps like Weathernews, which has over 50 million downloads and recently saw 8,000 photos uploaded in a weekend. Shunsuke Arioka of Weathernews in Chiba noted that user photos help classify seven bloom stages. The bloom season spans about 12 weeks, starting in southern Japan in March and moving north to Hokkaido by early May. Previously, computer models were used but proved unreliable, leading Japan's national weather agency to stop forecasts in 2009 after a 2007 error of over a week. AI systems, while not perfect, offer earlier and more reliable predictions, though this year's bloom arrived slightly early due to above-average temperatures. In 2023, Monash University in Melbourne applied AI to social media images from 2008-2018, achieving predictions within a few days' margin. AI is also being used to study aging cherry trees, many planted post-World War II and nearing their 60-70 year lifespan, with apps estimating tree age from smartphone photos to aid local maintenance decisions.